Thinking Better

The Base Rate Is A Hell of A Thing

Respecting the base rate means figuring out what the odds of an outcome is, and assuming that it applies to you. Here's what that looks like when used as a thinking technique.


The Games People Play With Cash Flow

One way that first principles thinking fails is when you build your analysis up from a deficient set of base principles. Everything is correct and true, but you still end up mistaken. Here's how that looks like in practice.


How First Principles Thinking Fails

Thinking is split roughly into pattern matching against experience, and reasoning from first principles. Here's one argument for why you need both.