Cedric Chin

When you're faced with uncertainty, the best thing you can do is analyse your inputs, synthesise a new model, and then destroy it to start over again.

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.

Why cash flow is a good lens to use as we watch the current recession unfolding in real time. Written with the employee in mind.

A couple of observations about career moats in a recession — which is what looks to be hurtling towards us as a result of the COVID19 pandemic.

There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.

How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.