Cedric Chin

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.

Why cash flow is a good lens to use as we watch the current recession unfolding in real time. Written with the employee in mind.

A couple of observations about career moats in a recession — which is what looks to be hurtling towards us as a result of the COVID19 pandemic.

There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.

How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.

Lessons I learnt while applying the Good Judgment Project's superforecasting techniques to the COVID-19 outbreak, albeit for personal reasons.

You can't pursue expertise if you're scared of starting. Why it's better to get numb first before you focus on getting good.

What do metagames have to do with the acquisition of expertise?