I find it a little difficult to believe that expertise is 'merely' pattern-matching. And yet it seems to have resulted in the some of my best learning outcomes over the past year. A look at my scepticism, in the context of several ideas we've covered in this blog.
A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.
A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?
What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?
Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.
Why it's sometimes limiting to optimise for mission, especially if you're at the start of your career.
