A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.

Why it's sometimes limiting to optimise for mission, especially if you're at the start of your career.

Brands are an important tool for building economic moats in business. We look at how this translates to building career moats in an individual career.

Michael Kitces unintentionally gives us an example of what it looks like when someone turns an understanding of business models into actionable career decisions.

An incredibly concise articulation of the difference between experience and expertise, by way of psych professor Greg Northcraft.

A summary of the conclusions from my Putting Mental Models to Practice series. What are mental models? How did mental models become so popular?

The most important lesson I learnt from writing and launching a book in 2019, applicable to all those who've decided to take on self-directed work in their lives.