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Feature image for Every Actionable Book is Actually Two Books Inside

Every Actionable Book is Actually Two Books Inside

Actionable books are books that contain techniques or approaches you may apply to your life. Here's how to read them.

Feature image for Good Synthesis is the Start of Good Sensemaking

Good Synthesis is the Start of Good Sensemaking

When you're faced with uncertainty, the best thing you can do is analyse your inputs, synthesise a new model, and then destroy it to start over again.

Feature image for Much Ado About The OODA Loop

Much Ado About The OODA Loop

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.

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This Is What Uncertainty Feels Like

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

Feature image for The Limits of Applied Superforecasting

The Limits of Applied Superforecasting

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Feature image for Exploiting Productivity Momentum

Exploiting Productivity Momentum

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

Feature image for Seek Failures Early

Seek Failures Early

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.

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Watch The Cash Flow

Why cash flow is a good lens to use as we watch the current recession unfolding in real time. Written with the employee in mind.

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Career Moats in a Recession

A couple of observations about career moats in a recession — which is what looks to be hurtling towards us as a result of the COVID19 pandemic.

Feature image for The Parable of the Promotion Ladder and The Market

The Parable of the Promotion Ladder and The Market

There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.