Better methods to think better, and to be less wrong.
Make sure you're playing the real game, not some more complicated game you've made up for yourself.
Respecting the base rate means figuring out what the odds of an outcome is, and assuming that it applies to you. Here's what that looks like when used as a thinking technique.
Five ways to do noise reduction, from the field of judgment and decision making.
Results from the BIN paper, or why reducing noise in your decision making is far easier than fighting your cognitive biases.
One way that first principles thinking fails is when you build your analysis up from a deficient set of base principles. Everything is correct and true, but you still end up mistaken. Here's how that looks like in practice.
Thinking is split roughly into pattern matching against experience, and reasoning from first principles. Here's one argument for why you need both.
The simplest, most useful form of Charlie Munger's 'Inversion' that I've found is to use negative screens in my career. Here's what that looks like.
How learning and using the four theories of truth can help us become better thinkers, better practitioners, and (hopefully!) better writers.
When you're faced with uncertainty, the best thing you can do is analyse your inputs, synthesise a new model, and then destroy it to start over again.