Ideas

In which we explore ways to better understand the world.

Much Ado About The OODA Loop

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.


This Is What Uncertainty Feels Like

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.


The Limits of Applied Superforecasting

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?