In which we explore ways to better understand the world.

How The Superforecasters Do It

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

Forecasting Under Uncertainty

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.