The Parable of the Promotion Ladder and The Market
There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.
There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.
How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.
A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.
A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?
What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?
Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.