Ideas

Better models for operating in the world.

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Heuristics Are OK

Psychological heuristics (or mental shortcuts) tend to get a bad rep today. But heuristics are what makes expertise possible. Here's why heuristics aren't as bad as we make them out to be.

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The Three Kinds of Tacit Knowledge

There are three types of tacit knowledge, all of which 'cannot be captured through words alone'.

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Every Actionable Book is Actually Two Books Inside

Actionable books are books that contain techniques or approaches you may apply to your life. Here's how to read them.

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Much Ado About The OODA Loop

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.

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This Is What Uncertainty Feels Like

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

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The Limits of Applied Superforecasting

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

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Exploiting Productivity Momentum

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

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Seek Failures Early

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.

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Career Moats in a Recession

A couple of observations about career moats in a recession — which is what looks to be hurtling towards us as a result of the COVID19 pandemic.

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The Parable of the Promotion Ladder and The Market

There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.