Ideas

Better models for operating in the world.

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Reality Without Frameworks

How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.

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Five Takeaways on Predictions (For The New Decade)

A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.

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How The Superforecasters Do It

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

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How Do You Evaluate Your Own Predictions?

What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?

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Forecasting Under Uncertainty

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.

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Desire for Mission is a Career Limiting Belief

Why it's sometimes limiting to optimise for mission, especially if you're at the start of your career.

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Personal Brand as Moat, Personal Brand as Soft Landing

Brands are an important tool for building economic moats in business. We look at how this translates to building career moats in an individual career.

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The Difference Between Experience and Expertise

An incredibly concise articulation of the difference between experience and expertise, by way of psych professor Greg Northcraft.

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The Mental Model FAQ

A summary of the conclusions from my Putting Mental Models to Practice series. What are mental models? How did mental models become so popular?

Feature image for Don't Beat Yourself Up Over Self-Directed Work

Don't Beat Yourself Up Over Self-Directed Work

The most important lesson I learnt from writing and launching a book in 2019, applicable to all those who've decided to take on self-directed work in their lives.