Why thinking long term can lead to a competitive advantage, and what that looks like in business and in careers.

You know how creative people always seem to have some set of illogical rituals around their work? Well, I gave it a shot for a month. Here's how that went.

Five ways to do noise reduction, from the field of judgment and decision making.

Results from the BIN paper, or why reducing noise in your decision making is far easier than fighting your cognitive biases.

Reputation is old. Personal brands are new. It is useful to know that they are not the same thing.

Some careers can be made on the back of a single, wonderful idea. We take a look at what that looks like, through Bill Gurley's VC career.

Over the long term, enthusiasm for most projects fade with time. Here's one useful way to think about it.

One way that first principles thinking fails is when you build your analysis up from a deficient set of base principles. Everything is correct and true, but you still end up mistaken. Here's how that looks like in practice.

If you want to understand career moats, understand competitive arbitrage. It is the background and justification for the pursuit of a moat.

Thinking is split roughly into pattern matching against experience, and reasoning from first principles. Here's one argument for why you need both.