Much of expertise is tacit: that is, it cannot be captured through words alone. We look at techniques, drawn from the field of Naturalistic Decision Making, designed to acquire the tacit knowledge of experts.

What tacit knowledge is, and why it is the most interesting topic in the study of expertise today.

Actionable books are books that contain techniques or approaches you may apply to your life. Here's how to read them.

When you're faced with uncertainty, the best thing you can do is analyse your inputs, synthesise a new model, and then destroy it to start over again.

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.

Why cash flow is a good lens to use as we watch the current recession unfolding in real time. Written with the employee in mind.