How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.

Lessons I learnt while applying the Good Judgment Project's superforecasting techniques to the COVID-19 outbreak, albeit for personal reasons.

You can't pursue expertise if you're scared of starting. Why it's better to get numb first before you focus on getting good.

What do metagames have to do with the acquisition of expertise?

Ram Charan's 2001 book on business principles is probably the best concise introduction to how a business works.

I find it a little difficult to believe that expertise is 'merely' pattern-matching. And yet it seems to have resulted in the some of my best learning outcomes over the past year. A look at my scepticism, in the context of several ideas we've covered in this blog.

A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.