Ideas

Why we need to be careful when using frameworks from the field of judgment and decision making.

The rigour of this entire blog may be captured in a single sentence: use practice as the bar for truth. Here are some implications.

Psychological heuristics (or mental shortcuts) tend to get a bad rep today. But heuristics are what makes expertise possible. Here's why heuristics aren't as bad as we make them out to be.

There are three types of tacit knowledge, all of which 'cannot be captured through words alone'.

Actionable books are books that contain techniques or approaches you may apply to your life. Here's how to read them.

An in-depth look at John Boyd and the OODA loop, the strategic thinker most concerned about fast adaptation under uncertainty.

When you're taking action in the face of uncertainty, you have to make peace with the idea that you're never going to know if you're doing the right thing. This pandemic is one way of remembering what that's going to feel like.

Is it really worth it to generate well-calibrated probabilistic predictions? Or would you do better if you assume that all prediction is too difficult, and act as if this were the case?

Notes from putting three variations of productivity momentum to practice.

A simple trick to use whenever you're thinking of doing a massive career change: find the people who have failed, and ask them why.