Feature image for Forecasting Under Uncertainty

Forecasting Under Uncertainty

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.


Book Summaries

Feature image for How to Win in a Winner-Take-All World

How to Win in a Winner-Take-All World

Neil Irwin's 2019 book How to Win is a tactical book on career planning in a the face of macro-economic change.

Feature image for Obviously Awesome

Obviously Awesome

April Dunford's book on product positioning is awesome, and has some overlap with those of us who are interested in positioning an individual career.

Feature image for Peak

Peak

Peak is a 2016 book from K. Anders Ericsson, the leading authority on deliberate practice. It covers 30 years of research into the field, but ultimately fails as a practical guide to putting it to practice.

Feature image for Creative Selection

Creative Selection

Ken Kocienda's book is about how Apple builds software in the time of Steve Jobs. Highly recommended, especially if you're a software engineer.

Feature image for The Mental Model FAQ

The Mental Model FAQ

A short summary of the conclusions from my Putting Mental Models to Practice series, for those who don't have the time nor the inclination to read the full series.