Notes on the expertise of evaluating expertise, from someone who's obsessed with it.

Believability is a criterion for evaluating practical advice, originally articulated by Ray Dalio in his 2017 book Principles. These are some notes from practice.

Why it's important not to hold too tightly to any one explanatory narrative during a period of high uncertainty.

M. Mitchell Waldrop's book on the Santa Fe Institute is a gateway drug to a powerful if subtle idea. Here's why it matters.

Sensemaking is hard. Sensemaking around a possible paradigm shift is even harder. What's the narrative for crypto? What is crypto good for?

Why org design is about more than just studying and then picking the right organisational structures.

Learning to evaluate the expertise of others as a competitive advantage in itself.

Building effective organisations is a remarkably useful, if rare, skill. This is what it looks like, what it consists of, and how to tell if someone has it.

How every post about expertise and expertise acquisition on this blog fits together. Also a few things I'm currently investigating.

Make sure you're playing the real game, not some more complicated game you've made up for yourself.