Ideas

A couple of observations about career moats in a recession — which is what looks to be hurtling towards us as a result of the COVID19 pandemic.

There are — loosely speaking — two kinds of advancement games you can play in your career. This is a parable about both.

How using frameworks can get in the way of actual sensemaking, and what to do about it.

A couple of things to keep in mind when faced with the deluge of predictions to welcome 2020.

A comprehensive summary of superforecaster techniques from Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner's Superforecasting. Because — let's face it — you want to predict the future, don't you?

What happens when you adapt the scoring system of the Good Judgment Project to your intuitions at work?

Phillip Tetlock's Good Judgment Project asks if it possible to construct reasonably accurate forecasts under uncertainty. The answer to that is yes, and this matters because the pursuit of expertise is the pursuit of a predictive model that works.

Why it's sometimes limiting to optimise for mission, especially if you're at the start of your career.

Brands are an important tool for building economic moats in business. We look at how this translates to building career moats in an individual career.

An incredibly concise articulation of the difference between experience and expertise, by way of psych professor Greg Northcraft.